2025 Oscars: Predicting the Unpredictable

The 2025 Oscars race is shaping up to be…interesting. While the winners of Hollywood's biggest night remain a mystery, the list of potential nominees is becoming clearer.

The Academy is larger and more international than ever, which is leading to shifting voting patterns that make definitive predictions a bit more challenging. Additionally, studios are producing and releasing content at breakneck speed, giving voters a seemingly unlimited amount of content to sift through. 

While we’ll have to wait until Wednesday morning for Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott to give us the official nods, here's a look at The Forum's first set of predictions for nominees across the major categories.

Best Picture

The Best Picture race seems to have coalesced around six clear frontrunners:

• “Anora”

• “The Brutalist”

• “A Complete Unknown”

• “Conclave”

• “Emilia Pérez”

• “Wicked”

With “Emilia Pérez” taking home extensive hardware from the Golden Globes and getting significant cross-category attention from the BAFTAs, the film seems all but certain to get a nod for this category, but not without controversy. “Emilia Pérez” has been widely panned as racist and offensive by Mexicans, a sentiment this outlet shares. The film's alleged use of AI to enhance the accents of Selena Gomez, Karla Sofía Gascón, and Zoe Saldaña should be heavily scrutinized–but that hasn’t stopped other voting bodies from showering it with awards.

Two additional slots are likely to be filled by films with strong niche support, like “The Substance” or “Dune: Part Two.” Films such as “A Real Pain” and “Sing Sing” could round out the list due to their expected lead acting nominations. 

Predicted nominees:
"Anora" "The Brutalist," "A Complete Unknown," "Conclave," "Dune: Part Two," "Emilia Pérez," "A Real Pain," "Sing Sing," "The Substance," "Wicked."

Best Director

The Directors Branch often favors international filmmakers with distinct artistic styles, as shown by past snubs of high-profile directors in favor of indie or global talent. This year could follow suit with names like Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”) and Edward Berger (“Conclave”). American contenders Sean Baker (“Anora”) and Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”) are also strong possibilities.

As noted above, Jacques Audiard’s portrayal of Mexicans in “Emilia Pérez” is truly insulting, especially given his comments about doing little to no research on the country’s crisis with mass disappearances. 

Predicted nominees:
Jacques Audiard, Sean Baker, Edward Berger, Brady Corbet, Coralie Fargeat.

Best Actor

This year’s Best Actor category appears less competitive, with a clear path for Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”), and Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”). The final slot could go to Daniel Craig (“Queer”), though Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”) remains a wildcard.

Predicted nominees:
Adrien Brody, Timothée Chalamet, Daniel Craig, Colman Domingo, Ralph Fiennes.

Best Actress

Arguably the most competitive acting category this year, Best Actress boasts a wealth of strong performances. Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”) and Demi Moore (“The Substance”) are near locks, joined by Mikey Madison (“Anora”), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”), and Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”).

Predicted nominees:
Cynthia Erivo, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Mikey Madison, Demi Moore, Karla Sofía Gascón.

Best Supporting Categories

Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) and Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”) seem safe, while Yura Borisov (“Anora”) and Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”) may fill the remaining slots.

Supporting Actress: Ariana Grande (“Wicked”) and Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”) are almost guaranteed spots, with Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”) and Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”) also in strong contention.

Some closing thoughts on “Emilia Pérez”

This is, far and away, the most undeserving film to ever be seriously considered by voting bodies. From the outright disrespect to Mexicans to the blissful indulgence of transphobia, this film is objectively awful. It reeks of AI, something that is endangering the livelihoods of the thousands of writers who create the luscious, indulgent stories that capture the hearts and minds of viewers. 

“Emilia Pérez” deserves recognition. Not for being an exploration of a multitude of cross-cultural issues, but for being the product of the Horsemen that stand to destroy not only the film and entertainment industry, but culture as a whole.